S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 23/9/26
S&P500 Daily Action Areas & Price Targets 23/9/26
***QUOTING ES1!(Z CONTRACT LEVLES) FOR CASH US500 EQUIVALENT LEVELS, SUBTRACT POINT DIFFERENCE***
MONTHLY-WEEKLY& DAILY LEVELS
MONTHLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7440/7400
MONTHLY RANGE RES 7882 SUP 7490
WEEKLY BULL BEAR ZONE 7690/80
WEEKLY RANGE RES 7826/7798 SUP 7621/27
DAILY BULL BEAR ZONE 7795/7805
GLOBEX RANGE RES 7853/71 SUP 7799/7817
GAMMA FLIP 7820
DELTA FLIP 7808
CALL WALLS 7841/7807
PUT WALLS 7766/7729
UNFILLED GAPS 7541 - 7712
DAILY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7758
WEEKLY STRUCTURE - OTFL - 7717
MONTHLY STRUCTURE - OTFH - 7542
VIX BULL BEAR ZONE 17.7
VVIX / VIX 5.0–6.0:Tension Building (Current: 5.77) — VIX stays low (~14.8), smart money likely paying for tail-risk hedges on volatility.
PRIMARY TRADES & TARGETS
LONG ON REJECT/RECLAIM DBBZ TARGET DAILY RANGE RES
***ADDITIONAL SETUPS & TARGETS HIGHLIGHTED ON THE CHARTS***
(I FADE TESTS OF 2 SIGMA LEVELS ESPECIALLY INTO THE FINAL HOUR OF THE NY CASH SESSION AS 90% OF THE TIME WHEN TESTED THE MARKET WILL CLOSE ABOVE OR BELOW THESE LEVELS)
SPX PUT/CALL RATIO 0.81 (The numbers reflect options traded during the current session.) A put-call ratio below 0.7 is generally considered bullish, and a put-call ratio above 1.0 is generally considered bearish.
JHEQX Q3 Collar Short Call Cap: ~7,750 – 7,900 - Long Put Strike: ~7,050 – 7,100 (approx. 5% downside protection) Short Put Strike: ~5,950
DEC2025 OPEX to DEC2026 OPEX is 945 points giving us a range of [5889,7779]
Notes On Structure Implications
Balance: This refers to a market condition where prices move within a defined range, reflecting uncertainty as participants await further market-generated information. Our approach to balance includes favouring fade trades at the range extremes (highs/lows) while preparing for potential breakout scenarios if the balance shifts.
One-Time Framing Higher (OTFH): This represents a market trend where each successive bar forms a higher low, signalling a strong and consistent upward movement.
One-Time Framing Lower (OTFL): This describes a market trend where each successive bar forms a lower high, indicating a pronounced and steady downward movement.
GOLDMAN SACHS FICC & EQUITY TRADING DESK VIEWS
EQUITY & VOL DESK BRIEFING: AGENTIC AI & CONSUMER INERTIA
Author: Mitch Jeter (Goldman Sachs Analyst, FICC & Equities)
Date: September 22, 2026
THE TAKE: AGENTIC AI BREAKTHROUGH TARGETS "CONSUMER INERTIA" NAMES
US equity benchmarks delivered a mixed session as the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 recorded its fourth consecutive daily gain and achieved its first record close since June (+82 bps to 30,732), while the S&P 500 finished unchanged (7,764).
The central narrative on the trading desk was the accelerating disruption from Agentic AI in the wake of Meta Muse momentum. Institutional desks aggressively shorted the GS Short Consumer Inertia Basket (GSXUSWCH -2.58%), which targets business models reliant on high switching costs, friction-heavy cancellations, and behavioral retention.
Macro headwinds continued to ease as WTI Crude fell for a 5th straight session (-1.24% to $94.59/bbl) following reports that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 7 days, supported by optimism around US-Iran diplomatic negotiations during the UN General Assembly.
MARKET SUMMARY & ASSET BREAKDOWN
S&P 500 (SPX): Closed at 7,764.00 (Flat / +0 bps) | VIX fell -4.03% to 14.27 | MOC $1.3B to BUY | Implied move through tomorrow: 40 bps
Nasdaq-100 (NDX): Closed at 30,732.00 (+0.82%) | First record high since June | Driven by Agentic AI and tech hardware
Russell 2000 (RUT): Closed at 2,896.00 (+0.72%) | Small-caps outperformed SPX as oil and yield volatility moderated
Dow Jones (DJI): Closed at 51,863.00 (-0.36%) | Dragged down by financial and traditional consumer names
US 10-Year Treasury: Yield at 4.9531% (+0.2 bps) | Stable near 4.95% ahead of key macro catalysts
WTI Crude: Price at $94.59 (-1.24%) | 5th consecutive decline on Hormuz reopening headlines and diplomatic progress
Gold: Price at $4,362.00 (+0.44%) | Moderately higher alongside USD index gains (DXY 100.55)
Bitcoin: Price at $86,270.00 (-0.82%) | Consolidated following yesterday's multi-point surge
CBOE VIX: Closed at 14.27 (-4.03%) | Surface vol crushed on flat SPX tape; belly/back-end NDX vol bid
THEMATIC FOCUS: CONSUMER INERTIA BASKET (GSXUSWCH)
The desk highlighted significant institutional flow shorting companies whose moat depends on customer friction, contractual lock-in, or multi-step cancellation processes—barriers that Agentic AI tools can now automate seamlessly:
Basket Performance: GSXUSWCH closed down -2.58%, making it one of the most active thematic baskets on the GS floor.
Key Single-Stock Drivers:
Planet Fitness (PLNT): -9.45% (Gym membership cancellation friction disintermediated by AI agents)
New York Times (NYT): -7.16% (Subscription retention/cancellation friction disrupted)
Charles Schwab (SCHW): -6.11% (Account transfer/cash-sweep inertia under pressure)
Allstate (ALL): -5.55% (Insurance comparison and automated policy switching)
Intuit (INTU): -3.87% (Software retention and tax workflow disintermediation)
INSTITUTIONAL FLOWS & DERIVATIVES COLOR
Desk Activity (-871 bps to SALE / 3/10 Rating):
Asset Managers (LOs): Net sellers of -$857M (supply in Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, and Tech vs. demand in macro products and Materials).
Hedge Funds: Net sellers of -$953M (supply in Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, and macro products vs. demand in Healthcare).
Derivatives & Volatility Dynamics:
NDX Volatility Lift: NDX fixed strike vols were bid in the belly and back-end of the curve as spot made record highs, lifting vol off summer lows.
SPX Volatility & Skew: Fixed strike vols were offered and skew was crushed on flat SPX spot action.
VIX Optionality: Desk noted 20k buyers in both Oct 17 Straddles and Oct 18 Puts. Desk favors Oct 20 Calls for attractive upside convexity ahead of a crowded event calendar.
Upcoming Catalysts: Meta Connect Developer Conference, McDonald's (MCD) Investor Day, and Aurora (AUR) Investor Day.
Disclaimer: The material provided is for information purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. The views, information, or opinions expressed in the text belong solely to the author, and not to the author’s employer, organization, committee or other group or individual or company.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!